2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 144

Who doesn’t love a little pleasant surprise on a Monday? To say the Cubs had a tough matchup Monday night feels like a wild understatement. They were facing arguably the best team in baseball, were starting an aging starter behind whom they’ve had an abysmal record, and their offense had completely vanished in the previous three-game series. This felt like an impossible mission.

But baseball always has surprises for us. This is some of the joy of following baseball. Even as someone who has followed baseball for 40 years now and blogged about it for years, you can get caught off guard. Most of what I do here is reading the tea leaves and trying to anticipate what comes next. The tea leaves would have suggested a resounding Cubs loss.

Instead, the Cubs offense stormed out of the gate with three runs in the top of the first, giving Kyle Hendricks a little something to work with. Today is not the day for a long form discussion of Kyle, but I’m still not sure what to do with the remainder of his career. He’s a smart guy and so “crafty veteran” fully applies. But he has virtually no margin of error against elite hitters. Facing the heart of the Dodgers order three times threatened to derail this game. Could you use him as a swing starter/long reliever and cherry pick some favorable spots to use him? Have him follow an opener? Use him as part of a piggyback scenario? Absent one of those scenarios, it looks like he would have to be a medium leverage reliever. A guy you try to get two or three innings out of to save your pen.

Fortunately for the Cubs, their offense just kept adding. I didn’t go digging for any stats, but I struggle to think of a time when the Cubs have won nine of 10 on the road. In what will ultimately end up a forgettable season, this team has had moments where they’ve flashed a team capable of so much more than what they’ve done. I won’t stop you if you want to criticize the front office for not adding to the mixture. With the marathon season of baseball, massive depth is a valid way to solve the regular season puzzle.

That said, you eventually have to settle on the 26 who are going to chase a championship. My point today isn’t to be wistful and/or frustrated about what this team isn’t. I’m saying today that despite what they aren’t, this cast of characters does have some lofty accomplishments.

When I get to thinking about this team, this is where I end up. The front office missed terribly on their bullpen this year. You know the names. Alzolay, Merryweather, Neris, Almonte, Wesneski, Little, Palencia, Cuas. These were guys the Cubs thought they’d find three or four leverage relievers out of. Neris vaguely did the job for a while. They got almost nothing out of the rest. The mountain of blown saves cost this team a playoff berth.

And yet, think back to this past weekend with the Yankees. The Cubs maybe had a chance to sweep an elite team if they’d had any offense at all. Pick your metric. ERA? The Cubs are seventh in baseball at 3.74. Raw runs allowed per game? Ninth at 4.12. In short, the pitching has been very good. Yes, the heavy lifting has been done by the excellent starting rotation. But in the end, it has been the offense that has held this team back for the largest portion.

These 10 road games over the last few weeks have highlighted that. Sure, until last night they were facing teams that are fixated on 2025 and beyond. But the offense has been significantly more productive lately and the team looks like a juggernaut. The bullpen was an enormous problem for months. But a solid offense would have also bailed them out of a ton of that. In sum, the Cubs offense has averaged 4.53 runs per game. They’ve piled a ton of that on over the last few weeks.

What has been the major difference? Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya and, to a lesser extent, Christian Bethancourt have helped solidify this offense. PCA alone might change the complexion of this team next season. That’s a lot to put on the shoulders of a guy who will only be 23 and is absolutely still figuring out the best ways to deploy his immense talent. But I do know this. That kid is not going to shy away from the pressure. Dating back to July 28, he has a line of .318/.362/.519 (wRC+ 142). With his speed and defense, that player starts in the All-Star game. That’s 143 plate appearances too. A bit less than a quarter of a season. Too cherry picked? Go back to July 3. .278/.325/.489 (wRC+ 123). 193 PA. The season line is up to an 89 wRC+ with gold glove defense and 26 steals. Fangraphs has him at 2.2 WAR for probably a bit over half a season’s worth of plate appearances.

He’s one to dream on. And so the Cubs lineup is getting longer. It was nice to see the bat of Michael Busch break out last night. It feels like he’s been pretty quiet for weeks and he has plummeted in the H&G standings. Finally, Isaac Paredes had a two-hit game. Quietly, he has a wRC+ 117 over his last 54 plate appearances. This team should at least make this fun down to the end.

Let’s try to pick the three biggest positives from a night with so many.

Three Stars:

1. Michael Busch. Four hits, a double, a homer, three runs batted in, three runs scored.
2. Cody Bellinger: Single, homer, walk, three runs batted in, two scored.
3. Keegan Thompson. Vultured the win to some extent. But the two outs to get out of the fifth with the bases loaded with only one run scoring felt massive.

Game 144, September 9: Cubs 10, Dodgers 4 (74-70)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Michael Busch (.204). 4-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 3 R
• Hero: Cody Bellinger (.186). 2-4, HR, 3 RBI, 2 R
• Sidekick: Keegan Thompson (.120). 1⅔ IP, 6 batters, 2 H, K (W 2-1)

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Drew Smyly (-.090). ⅓ IP, 4 batters, 2 H, BB, 2 R, K
• Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.061). 2-4
• Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.050). 1-5, 2 R

WPA Play of the Game: Cody Bellinger’s two-run homer with two outs in the first set the tone for the whole game. (.187)

*Dodgers Play of the Game: Mookie Betts batted with runners on first and third with one out and the Dodgers down four. He singled, cutting the lead to three. (.088)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s Winner: Jameson Taillon received 124 of 147 votes.

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Shōta Imanaga +21.5
• Christian Bethancourt/Porter Hodge +15
• Javier Assad +12.5
• Jameson Taillon +12
• Miles Mastrobuoni/Adbert Alzolay -10
• Kyle Hendricks -14
• Isaac Paredes -16
• Christopher Morel -20.5

*Busch up to -4.5, Bellinger up to -1.5, Thompson up to +5.5. Smyly down to -1.5, Hoerner down to -5.5, Swanson down to -4.

Up Next: An international showcase game for baseball as two elite Japanese import pitchers square off. Shōta Imanaga (12-3, 2.99) will face fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-2, 2.92). Yamamoto got the biggest hype in the offseason when the two arrived. But Imanaga has had the smoother transition. Still, both have been excellent when healthy.

Can the Cubs steal a second game in LA behind their best starter? The Cubs are 20-6 when Imanaga starts. He has single-handedly kept this team alive on the periphery of the NL playoff picture all year long.